Inferential Focus

Using our disciplined intelligence-gathering process, we have been consistently able to alert our clients early to critical change that has proven to have substantial impact on markets and consumers. We’ve described several of these examples of early change detection below.

World War III Terrorist Activity Manias Asian Flu

Change Area	World War III – Response to Permeable Borders
Our Intelligence	Recurring conflicts in Africa, Middle East, Central Asia, East Asia, and South America over globalization. Rising nationalism New information technology makes economic, communications, and cultural borders more permeable Nations worldwide attempt to secure these borders and their national boundaries
Our Discovery Date	Summer 1998
Actual Events	Sept 11 Terrorist Attack Tighter Immigration Policies Religious revivals in US Consumers, Corporations, and Governments enter security/control mania

Change Area	Terrorist Activity (part of World War III)
Our Intelligence	Large number of unexplained bombings July/August 2000 Evidence of networks of relationships and communications; Osama bin Laden and Hamas; Arab Afghans with Phillipines
Our Discovery Date	Sept 5, 2000
Actual Events	Terrorist Attacks Sept. 11, 2001

Change Area	Manias
Our Intelligence	Internet stock prices soar despite low or no profits Online companies multiply spending on high profile advertising Evidence suggests the upward drive is a mania Manias differ from other obsessions/crazes in that they end in collapse
Our Discovery Date	December 3, 1999
Actual Events	March 10, 2000 NASDAQ peaks at 5,132 By May 10, 2000 NASDAQ has plummeted to 3,384 (mania collapses) By March 12, 2001 NASDAQ closes below 2,000

Change Area	Macroeconomic: "Asian Flu"
Our Intelligence	Potential for volatile currencies in "tiger" countries More heated technology industry competion Greater political risks "Addiction to Growth
Our Discovery Date	Fall 1996
Actual Events	Currency crisis hits Southeast Asian economies