As part of Inferential Focus’s Core Service, clients
receive written briefings several times a month that reflect our latest
intelligence and serve as part of our early warning system. Topics are derived
from what we are seeing in social, economic, political or technological
arenas, and will vary in any given month. Sample briefings are included here
to illustrate the breadth of our coverage.
Early Warning: September 5, 2000
Synopsis: An unusually large number of unexplained bombings and explosions have recently occurred in a very short time. Is it credible to say that so many similar events in so many different places in so many different situations happened coincidentally? Our observations suggest that terrorist organizations are increasingly interlinking their operations through advanced communications and that these links are bringing together organizations other than those traditionally associated with terrorism. Additional observations suggest that, for the moment, Western intelligence has broken into at least one part of that system of communications.
Changes that software like Freenet and Gnutella have brought to Internet communications, however, could alter the operation field considerably. If interlinked terrorist organizations deploy this much more complex software – which can be downloaded free from the Internet – intelligence services could face problems they have not learned to solve.
The Change Plays Out
September 11, 2001: One year later, the World Trade Center terrorist attack takes place. The actions of Osama bin Laden’s Arab Afghan network and other decentralized terrorist organizations were described in detail in this briefing.
Early Warning: March 18, 2004
Synopsis: Without clear potential for above-the-line growth, many companies have turned to market-share battles, and that has led them to Wal-Mart’s door. There they are offered the Vlasic Conundrum: immediate market-share growth at the cost of long-term loss of pricing and margin control.
This reality results from the larger realities of the new new economy, which involves several significant secular changes in the economy: rampaging efficiencies (or addiction to productivity), endemic oversupply, hyper-competition, user-mindset marketplace, and micro-economic control. Oversupply and extreme competition are forcing a rethink of traditional business models. With the cost of entry into fields like cellular telephone services becoming so low, new competitors join a market and exploit the Legacy Liability – embedded costs that put established companies at a market disadvantage. In the new new economy, margin, profit and financial squeezes become commonplace, forcing fundamental changes in operation procedures and undermining individuals’ income. This is the negative cycle of the new new economy.
The Change Plays Out
Early Warning: September 26, 2003
Synopsis: The confusions and consequences of the permeable-borders (World War III) environment have led different age groups to respond in different manners. The Sustainability responses we have identified in previous Briefings – Control, Viability, Sanity, and Meaning – apply to all individuals, but specific responses are beginning to differ by age.
While many older adults have focused on self-preservation and restraint, members of “Generation X” and “Generation Y” are exploring new technologies and attempting to expand their points of contact in their search for Sustainability. Youth are seeking control over their identity via online profiles at social networking sites or in creating their own avatar. They are seeking viability through a constant connection to others in chat rooms and using Instant Messaging. They restore sanity through online entertainment such as multiplayer gaming, and are finding meaning writing online blogs and sharing photos. This exploration should continue, and other generations may follow this path, proving today’s youth to be a leading indicator for the rest of society.
The Change Plays Out
Early Warning: May 3, 2004
Synopsis: Recent attitudes about games have altered traditional game concepts, focusing on winning and denigrating losing. Everything in real life- dating, finding a job, personal appearance, business, markets, customers – is a candidate to be “gamed.” Being gamed means, among other things, creating a situation in which normal relationships become a game and then focusing on winning at any cost.
The gaming of nearly everything started in the financial realm, moved into business and has now become a primary source of entertainment. This is spreading appeal of gaming opponents to beat them and the system has several effects on society, which we have called: Never give a sucker an even break” (with apologies to W.C. Fields); “It’s not how you played the game, but whether you won outright”; “It’s the game, the whole game and nothing but the game”; and “When all else fails, try sanity.”
The Change Plays Out
Early Warning: April 15, 2004
Synopsis: Oil-producing countries are developing a new sense of value for their product, and it is generally higher than the market believes. Recent revelations about supply shortages matched with rapidly rising world demand have given producers this new perspective. Their own domestic economic troubles have pushed them to act now. Meanwhile, consuming countries have launched numerous efforts to locate new oil resources and expand existing fields. The tenser oil dynamic that has resulted has already contributed to the beginning of one war and one failed coup attempt. In addition, terrorists may have recently targeted downstream oil facilities.
All these phenomena hint that historic alliances between producer and consumer countries are giving way to new alliances of convenience among producers as well as between consuming countries and new producers. They also suggest increased volatility and conflict in world oil markets.
The Change Plays Out
