Inferential Focus
 










As part of Inferential Focus’s Core Service, clients receive written briefings several times a month that reflect our latest intelligence and serve as part of our early warning system. Topics are derived from what we are seeing in social, economic, political or technological arenas, and will vary in any given month. Sample briefings are included here to illustrate the breadth of our coverage.
Technology   Social   Global Economy   Political   

Click here for a case study of our work on the 2004-2008 Housing and Economy debacle.



Technology Briefing: “You Tube on the Boob Tube"
Early Warning: August 13, 2008
Synopsis: The rise of video on the Internet created a new challenge for television producers, and they eventually responded by making programs available on their own Web sites as well as on sites operated by independent distributors. Now, distributors are sending Internet content back to the television, but television watching of Internet content will come with special consumer capabilities, including the active ability to access and control the content watched on the once denounced passive “boob tube.”

New services will allow consumers to watch Internet video on their televisions. These new systems require special hardware and even some luck in connecting devices in one part of the house. Eventually, this hardware will go away, and customers will be free to watch on their TVs whatever comes over the Internet and will also be able to stream or download additional content from special distribution Web sites. This will complete the integration of television, with its larger picture and higher resolution, into the Internet digital environment, with its expanded access to a world of content and its enhanced control of how that content is used.

The Change Plays Out
• Content providers crate Hulu.com to transmit TV programs through the Internet.
• Consumers access television programs on their cell phones.
• TV manufacturers make TVs that link to Internet sites.
• Nielsen Ratings adds Internet viewing of TV programs to its program ratings system.
Read the full report
Back to top



Social Briefing: "The Next American: Changes in Attitude and Style Among Consumers, Employees and Citizens"
Recent Report: February 29, 2008
Synopsis:  The buffed body is losing its allure. Moving into pop culture after the social disorder of the early 1990s and becoming mainstream following the dot-com bust, the terrorist attacks of 2001 and mounting work pressures, the bulked-up body came to represent the positive attitude of individuals about their abilities to handle the increasing number and kinds of burdens being put on them – retirement planning, health insurance, extreme workloads.
Now individuals are losing that confidence. Male models on fashion runways have thinned considerably, and their diminution is the new symbol of how individuals see their abilities to carry the burdens being placed on them. The new, narrower body is a metaphor for an emerging set of values. Whereas individuals once thought they could “handle it all” alone, they now believe they need help – allies, movements, unions and groups that can bolster their strength.
The Change Plays Out
• In a surprising turn of political appeal, the country elects Barack Obama President.
Read the full report
Back to top



Social Briefing: "The National Anxiety Attack: Psychic Stress and the Realization of Economic Trouble"
Recent Report: January 24, 2008
Synopsis:  Bad economic news and struggling financial institutions have pounded away at the inherent optimism of the American public long enough that it has finally broken down. Consumer confidence, which had remained high through most of last year's market troubles, fell at the very end of 2007. The country's optimism seemed to tumble with its confidence. Two responses to the economic realities that caused the collapse - anger and fear - prompted consumers to make significant cutbacks in their spending and individuals to express greater frustration with specific problems. For some individuals, the way forward is to start over, to clean the slate and create a new way of addressing current realities. That perspective has already altered the dynamics of this year's national election and will eventually affect the workplace and markets. ”
The Change Plays Out
• Risk premiums soar.
• Consumers pullback spending for the first time since 1991 recession.
• Americans seek a "fresh start" and vote for Obama.
• Americans consumer confidence plummets to all time low; income falls at greatest rate since statistic began.
• Widespread talk of "global recession", "depression" and need for "new deal like intervention".
Read the full report
Back to top



Global Economy Briefings: “A War a Coup and an Explosion: Changes in Value and Relationships in the World’s Oil Markets”
Early Warning: April 15, 2004
Synopsis: Oil-producing countries are developing a new sense of value for their product, and it is generally higher than the market believes. Recent revelations about supply shortages matched with rapidly rising world demand have given producers this new perspective. Their own domestic economic troubles have pushed them to act now. Meanwhile, consuming countries have launched numerous efforts to locate new oil resources and expand existing fields. The tenser oil dynamic that has resulted has already contributed to the beginning of one war and one failed coup attempt. In addition, terrorists may have recently targeted downstream oil facilities.
All these phenomena hint that historic alliances between producer and consumer countries are giving way to new alliances of convenience among producers as well as between consuming countries and new producers. They also suggest increased volatility and conflict in world oil markets.
The Change Plays Out
• September 2004, U.S. lifts economic sanctions on oil-rich Libya.
• July 2005 Chinese CNOOC bids for American Unocal (later drops bid under U.S. government scrutiny).
• August 2005 Oil surpasses $65 a barrel.
Read the Full Report
Back to top



Political Briefing: "Bombs and Networks: New Terrorist Organizational Tools and Western Intelligence"
Early Warning: September 5, 2000
Synopsis: An unusually large number of unexplained bombings and explosions have recently occurred in a very short time. Is it credible to say that so many similar events in so many different places in so many different situations happened coincidentally? Our observations suggest that terrorist organizations are increasingly interlinking their operations through advanced communications and that these links are bringing together organizations other than those traditionally associated with terrorism. Additional observations suggest that, for the moment, Western intelligence has broken into at least one part of that system of communications.
Changes that software like Freenet and Gnutella have brought to Internet communications, however, could alter the operation field considerably. If interlinked terrorist organizations deploy this much more complex software – which can be downloaded free from the Internet – intelligence services could face problems they have not learned to solve.
The Change Plays Out
September 11, 2001: One year later, the World Trade Center terrorist attack takes place. The actions of Osama bin Laden’s Arab Afghan network and other decentralized terrorist organizations were described in detail in this briefing.
Read the full report
Back to top