Inferential Focus
 










Corporate Client Briefing Service
Corporate clients receive written briefings two to three times a month with our latest intelligence in consumer, economic, technology and political arenas. Clients select from the written briefings topics to receive a more in-depth customized discussion as part of the core service quarterly meetings or through our Decision Forum™ service. The sample briefings below describe a variety of changes of interest to corporate clients. We work with clients to understand the new dynamic we have identified, define its implications for their customers, products, and brand/marketing communications, and identify new opportunities suggested by the new dynamic.


Consumers Briefing: "Viagra, Blue Neckties and Linux: Emerging Responses to the Challenges to Idenity"
New Dynamic Reported: December 31, 2003
Dynamic Updated: February 18, 2004
Synopsis: The confusion and uncertainty generated by the realities of World War III and its permeable borders have triggered identity crises for many individuals, institutions, and nations. Responses to these crises have started to emerge in the form of three recognizable identities: a crisis identity, a default identity and a sustainable identity. The crisis identity results when events simply overwhelm those trying to deal with them, but it often prompts experimentation, which can be helpful. The default identity is a reflexive reaction, which draws on past concepts, practices, and behaviors to create a comfortable sense of self, but past reactions do not necessarily address contemporary realties. The sustainable identity results from innovation and substantive changes, and it has a durable and viable set of goals, behaviors, and self-concepts.
We have attached to each of these identities a metaphor to elucidate the perspectives and values behind it. The metaphors, in order of the three identities, are: Viagra, or at least the social use of that enhancement drug; the blue necktie, the latest “power” or perhaps “control” tie; and Linux, the open-source, flexible and dynamic computer operating system. We note that at present, most individuals are stuck in either the Crisis or Default categories.
The Change Plays Out
Spring 2004: Shows about personal makeovers and pleasing others (including invasive plastic surgery) such as Queer Eye for the Straight Guy, The Swan, and The Apprentice are hugely popular. (Crisis Idenity).
July 2004: Sales at J. Crew, Brooks Brothers and other retailers featuring “preppy” clothing see 25-50% jumps in sales. (Default Identity).
Summer 2004: Standards and decency become major focus of the FCC and public broadcasting. (Default Idenity).
November 2004: “Default Identity” candidate, Bush (who focused on traditional values) wins election.
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Structural Briefing: "Fear Nation Infuses Wal-Mart Nation: Performance Mania and its New Motivation"
New Dynamic Reported: December 18, 2003
Synopsis: The pressure to perform at work, in school, on tests and on the athletic field has survived the collapse of the late 1990s’ maniacal valuations. Because values were rising so fast in the 1990s, many workers pressured themselves to take advantage of the opportunities that seemed to appear everywhere. Now, with that ballooning economy deflated, the pressure to perform has a different motivation: the fear of being shunted aside. The fear of being left behind or being found superfluous permeates workers’ mindsets and corporate operations.
The institutional embodiment of the new pressure to perform is Wal-Mart, a store that has pushed performance and productivity to new levels. Wal-Mart’s relentless focus on driving costs down to drive prices down has become so widespread and accepted as desirable that it is the focus of much of the current marketplace. The current market obsession with lower prices has resulted from what we have called the New Industrial Revolution reaching a critical mass of influence. Whether a dynamic economic upturn can alleviate the endemic fear that the new pressure to perform engenders remains to be seen, but its presence is having an effect on how individuals perceive their own security.
The Change Plays Out
September 2004: In a survey, 75% of respondents say they wory about their work skills keeping pace with changing job needs.
October 2004: In a survey, 62% of respondents say their workload increased in the preceding six months.
April 2005 – 40% of U.S. supermarkets have adopted self-checkout lanes (instead of hiring more workers) and 95% say they will have them in some form by year end.
July 2005 – Over the last twelve months, Americans forfeit an average of 3 paid vacation days – 415 million days in total, a 50% increase over 2003.
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Economic Briefing: "Missing Rungs on America’s “Ladder of Mobility:” Challenges to the Middle Class and its American Dream; the Implications of a Sliding Middle Class."
New Dynamic Reported: February 21, 2003
Synopsis: In response to the ongoing push for globalization, critics in many different countries have asserted that any full implementation of the so-called Washington Consensus – free trade, privatization, open markets – would mean trouble for core cultural values. This concern about a country’s cultural identity has now reached back to the U.S. Upward mobility, rising standards of living, individualism and almost unlimited hopefulness have helped give rise to what became known as the American Dream.
The facilitators of that dream – education, steady employment, safety-net security, access to credit and assured retirement – have come under considerable strain and are now unable to deliver the hopefulness that has driven individuals to work harder and to plan into the future.
The traditional distinctions between middle-class and working-class attitudes have blurred over the past few decades because of the successful rise of the working class and the continued upward mobility of the middle class. With such successes, the contagious optimism of the middle class ruled. Now, with the middle class sliding and the working class retreating, that pervasive middle-class optimism is giving way to the once nearly extinguished working-class pessimism.
Working-class values and tastes are filtering through to the mainstream, whether in entertainment or the consumer market. That process has economic, market and political ramifications. The impacts will be substantial, and efforts to reinforce and rebuild the weakening middle class and its facilitators of upward mobility might need to begin soon.
Implications We Defined for Clients
Middle market retail and services will be hurt while discount retail thrives.
Young adults live at home longer, and delay adulthood.
Retirement is redefined – work longer, spend less.
College is revalued downward due to costs, trade schools become sought out.
Increased fear and less sense of economic security.
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International Briefing: "Wary and Weary: Disagreement with the American Government Are Leading to Disconnections from American Products"
New Dynamic Reported: January 17, 2003
Synopsis: In the past, anti-American activists directed their anger at the U.S. government, often insisting that they liked Americans but disliked the American government. That distinction has allowed American business to expand and grow, even while resistance to Washington was itself growing.
Recently, anti-Americanism has spread into economic and financial arenas, and as a result, the once-clear distinction between the American government and the American people has started to blur. Already in many places around the globe, local culture is rising in appeal, resulting in surprising success for local competitors to American companies. As that shift spreads, it could force changes in the way U.S. businesses operate internationally, including, among other things, a need for them to become more local and less American.
Implications We Defined for Clients
Brands strongly associated with America will be hurt overseas; companies must work to adjust their image locally..
A pushback against global free trade (Washington Consensus) in favor of regional and bilateral ties.
A rejection of American culture and a resurgence in local culture and nationalism.
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