Inferential Focus
 










Corporate Client Briefing Service
Corporate clients receive written briefings two to three times a month with our latest intelligence in consumer, economic, technology and political arenas. Clients select from the written briefings topics to receive a more in-depth customized discussion as part of the core service quarterly meetings or through our Decision Forum™ service. The sample briefings below describe a variety of changes of interest to corporate clients. We work with clients to understand the new dynamic we have identified, define its implications for their customers, products, and brand/marketing communications, and identify new opportunities suggested by the new dynamic.


Consumers Briefing: "Radical Unfamiliarity, Part II: Dealing with Asset Depletion and Pondering a New Standard of Living"
New Dynamic Reported: February 18, 2009

Synopsis: Losses caused by the flailing economy continue to mount, furthering the panic that seemed to set in among American consumers last September, when society witnessed some of the most spectacular financial collapses in history. Individuals as well as society’s leaders seem confused by the situation, primarily because this is not a typical recession. It was triggered not by typical business-cycle excesses but rather by the collapse of an asset class and its buttressing (tricky) financial instruments. Because individuals do not sense how bad their financial conditions will ultimately get, they are “hunkering down,” focusing on one idea: Preserve what you have. Because companies do not know when the downturn will end, they, too, are “hunkering down” and focusing on the same idea: Preserve what you have.
While many of the actions that individuals and companies are taking are actually making the economic malaise worse, some practices are just appearing that could well outlast the recession: Settle on What’s Good Enough (Sufficiency), Eliminate Unneeded Duplication (Efficiency), Temper the Turnover (Full Utilization), Do It Better for Less (Innovation), Prove You’re That Good (Value Validation), and Get Real (Practicality).
The Change Plays Out
Despite overt publicity about economic "green shoots," consumers remain constrained in spending. Anxiety about the economy lingers.
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Political Briefing: "Government Get Involved: Public Control of the Invisible Hand of the Marketplace"
New Dynamic Reported: September 26, 2008

Synopsis: After looking askance at Japan, Inc., Russia, Inc., and China, Inc., for their government-business collaborations, Americans must now get accustomed to Fed, Inc., Washington’s bold move to entwine the government in the economy. The huge government intervention into the U.S. economy has made Washington a player in several financial arenas and brings the U.S. government in line with other sovereign states that have brought their economies under greater government control.
Washington has been moving toward government involvement in personal lives and even economic realities for some time, and recent examples of state and local government actions suggest that attitudes in the country are shifting about the role of government in economic matters. If only the enterprises that the U.S. government now manages could turn a profit the way the Chinese state-owned companies did last year.
The Change Plays Out
Governments become more and more entwined in the private economy, taking majority shares in companies, bailing out others, and increasing regulatory controls.
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Economic Briefing: "Not Lately Or Any Time Soon: The Housing Market Unwinds and Consumers' Discretionary Budgets Shrink"
Update Briefing Reported: December 13, 2007
Synopsis: By extracting equity from their homes, resourceful consumers have avoided dealing with the financial consequences of increased expenses hitting their nondiscretionary budgets in an era of flat or negative salary increases. The practice of exploiting extraordinary equity for discretionary spending is coming to a halt.
The unwinding housing crisis is starting to affect corporate earnings and government budgets. Now, companies and governments are trying to pass along their budget troubles to individuals, whether those individuals are employees assuming more costs (or getting laid off) or citizens paying higher taxes and fees These pass-along actions are affecting individuals as consumers.
A structural slowdown in the economy is starting, and will continue to spread unless companies take money form their earnings flow to pay substantially higher salaries and governments discover ways to avoid increases in citizens' costs - questionable practices in the middle of an economic slowdown.
Implications We Defined for Clients
Recession, contraction in consumer credit, consumer spending, and employment.
Consumers redefine what is necessary, what is sufficient: smaller cars, smaller homes, reduced goods and services.
Retirement is redefined – work longer, spend less.
Consumers seek more government help, and turn to groups to reestablish a safety net. Increased unioniztion.
Increased fear and less sense of economic security.
Read the BRIEFING Or see our entire case study of warnings and reports about the housing crisis and economic tsunami.
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International Briefing: "A New Financial Architecture Emerges: Wealth Transfers and Spreading Growth Force Change"
New Dynamic Reported: November 27, 2007
Synopsis: Everyone is talking about the dollar, how its slide helps or hurts and what its lower value means for this or that enterprise. The reality behind the dollar's decline is more critical.
A great shift in wealth from net consuming countries to net producing countries has motivated the newly wealthy countries to rethink their associations with concepts and theories that have guided the world's financial "architecture" since the end of World War Ii. The emerging architecture (or structure) contradicts many of the concepts and practices embedded in institutions like the IMF, World Bank, and WTO. The net producing countries are developing new kinds of institutions, using practices and creating new alliances. The net effect is a global rearrangement of financial power and influence.
Implications We Defined for Clients
Greater government involvement/intervention in global trade and markets
A pushback against global free trade (Washington Consensus) in favor of regional and bilateral ties.
For-profit global companies forced to compete against state-backed companies where profit is not the primary objective.
Domestic needs will guide global actions.
Global reassessment of long-term assumptions, including: Democracy, free-market capitalism, modern finance, the dollar as reserve currency, ample and cheap natural resources.
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