Archive for December, 2009

Japan’s Cash-for-Clunkers: De Facto Protectionism

Tuesday, December 29th, 2009

Japan is running a Cash-for-Clunkers-type program through September 2010, which pays $2,778 to buyers who replace cars that are at least 13 years old with cars that meet Japan’s 2010 emissions standards.  Buyers with no trade-in will get $1,111 if their purchase beats those 2010 standards by at least 15 percent.  Japan allows foreign car companies to sell in Japan as long as those cars meet the fuel-standards of their home countries.  However, only cars that are tested to Japan’s domestic standards are eligible for the rebates.   Since U.S. car exports to Japan are tested only under U.S. rules, not Japan’s, none will be eligible for the rebate. (Automotive News, 12/21/09)

While Japanese automakers sold 319,342 vehicles – more than one-third of them imported – under the U.S. cash-for-clunkers program this year, U.S. brand vehicles will not qualify for the Japanese program.  Protests by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative have been met by Japanese government declarations that the program is fair.  In the context of “There’s a Lot Resting on Growth,” which we have discussed in recent client meetings, protectionism is one of the potential global economic destabilizers we have described.  Are the rules of the Japanese car rebate program a way of sneaking in de facto protectionism in response to their rising currency?

Risa Hess

China Pushes Open

Monday, December 28th, 2009

You haven’t often heared open source and China in the same sentence…until now.

Beginning in 2001, the Institute of Computing Technology in China started developing the Loongson chip – also known as the Dragon chip – with the goal of creating a chip versatile enough to drive anything from industrial robots to supercomputers.  The first chip appeared in a computer in 2006, and the third generation chip, currently in the prototype stage, will be used to power a petaflop supercomputer.  To encourage the adoption of the processor, the Institute of Computing Technology is adapting everything from Java to Open Office for the Loongson chip and releasing it all under a free software license.  (Wired, 1/10)

The first-generation Loongson chip is being used in a netbook built by Chinese company Lemote.  By releasing everything under a free software license, China is creating a platform for low-cost solutions for the domestic market as well as in Africa and other emerging economies.  This will be a challenge for other chip makers and software providers counting on those markets for future growth.

Eric Zavolinsky

Attacking the Drones

Thursday, December 24th, 2009

Iraqi militants used $26 software to intercept and record live video feeds from American predator drones conducting surveillance in Iraq.  Apparently, the U.S. military officials have known since the 1990s campaign in Bosnia that video surveillance from UAVs is sent unencrypted from the aircraft to ground control, but assumed that local adversaries would not know how to exploit this weakness and monitor the video feeds.  (Wall Street Journal, 12/17/09)

Seriously? SERIOUSLY!? With the accelerating rise in cyber warfare over the past three years, much of it conducted not necessarily by central governments but by rogue citizens who feel antipathy toward a foreign state, how could the Pentagon assume such a high level of naiveté about the trained and organized Iraqi insurgency?  It appears the U.S.military command still needs to reassess some of its assumptions about military tactics in the asymmetrical warfare increasingly common today.

Michael Hines

Another Last, Best Hope

Wednesday, December 23rd, 2009

The print and music industries have started what looks like a final effort to halt the damage that digital technology is wreaking on profits

Simon & Schuster became the first publisher to establish a delayed release window between publication of hardcover books and their e-book editions.  Thirty-five books carrying the Simon & Schuster imprint and having high print runs or high price points will be available in their print versions four months prior to the availability of their e-reader editions. (Publishers Weekly, 12/14/09)

Newspaper publishers are seeking to charge for their work; music companies are dropping the so-called freemium model and looking to expand music-as-a-service programs (a.k.a. subscription music); and now a large publisher wants to have print editions own the market for a limited time.  Unlike the movie industry, which has all but abandoned the sequential release model (i.e., theatre release, DVD, pay-per-view and television), book publishers hope the process of copying and replicating a book will be more time consuming than the much easier digital copying that plagued the music and film industries and that they will be spared the agony of an extensive underground market. Good luck with that.

Ken Hey - Inferential Focus